How a Trend Is Born
One real trend on USDJPY, from the last breath of the one before it to its own end, read moment by moment by MERAVITH. Scroll, and the board follows: the 5-minute candles, the lines, the 21 timeframes, the swarm and the plan, as they stood at each of these eight moments.
01:005 NovemberThe old trend runs out of fuel
USDJPY has been falling on the 5-minute chart since the top of 4 November at 15:30. Whole candles close under the orange liquidity line, now at 158.269, and the price has just reached the first bearish exhaustion at 158.181. The S board reads ▼ on sixteen timeframes; M1, M4 and M6 have reached their first targets too.
The board also shows what the chart alone would not. Under the price wait three bullish liquidity lines: H12 at 157.999, H3 at 157.898 and H2 at 157.878. Every bearish row from M10 to H1 carries an orange H2,H3,H12 Res. A line of the opposite trend between the price and the target is RESISTANCE: take the first profit there, and expect the trend to be in danger. The price itself sits inside a grey pool between the bullish H12 line and the bearish D1 line at 158.262.
What the board says
16 of 21 ▼ · M5 at its 1st bearish exhaustion · H2, H3 and H12 RESISTANCE under the price.
04:305 NovemberThe swarm
The price has pushed down to 157.779, through the second exhaustion of M5 at 157.802. One by one M2, M3, M4, M5, M6 and M10 have reached their exhaustions. Six neighbouring timeframes in the same trend, every one of them exhausted: that is a swarm. The shoal of small fish has swum as far as it can.
For the swarm MERAVITH works out four levels. The TARGET is the equilibrium of the swarm's highest timeframe, M10, at 158.360: the fair value the price is expected to return to. The STOP is the furthest exhaustion plus one deviation, 157.516 on M10. Halfway between them is the amber 50% at 157.938, and the entry is BUY 38.2% at 157.839. The 04:25 candle closed at 157.837. The price is at the entry, to the pip.
What the board says
Swarm M2–M10 ▼, all exhausted · BUY 38.2% @ 157.839 · TARGET M10 @ 158.360 · STOP M10 E1 @ 157.516.
05:005 NovemberThe first candles on the other side
Half an hour later M1, M2 and M3 are ▲. Their new trends start at the 04:24 to 04:26 candles, the bottom at 157.799. Nothing else has changed: the M5 liquidity line is still above the price at 158.108, the M5 row still reads bearish, and the A panel would warn that the price is on the wrong side of the line. From M4 up everything is still ▼.
This is the moment most traders miss, because on their own chart nothing has happened yet. The swarm frame is gone, too: with M1 to M3 turned, only four exhausted bearish frames remain in a row, and four is not a swarm. The smallest fish have turned first. That is how every trend starts.
What the board says
M1–M3 ▲ · M5 still ▼, the price under its line · 8 of 21 ▲.
07:305 NovemberConfirmed on M5
At 07:25 a whole 5-minute candle closes above the orange line. The M5 trend is now bullish. MERAVITH places the white start line by itself on the 04:25 candle, the bottom, and redraws everything from it: the liquidity line is the new balance of buyers and sellers at 157.987, the dotted channel around it at 157.867 and 157.822 is the usual pullback zone, the thick teal line at 158.201 is the first bullish exhaustion, and the crimson line at 157.773 is the exhaustion on the other side.
M1 to M6 are ▲, eleven timeframes in all. M1 has already reached its second target. Right at the price sit two bearish liquidity lines, M20 at 158.134 and H1 at 158.106, so the M5 row reads M20,H1 Res: the bigger timeframes have not turned, and their lines are in the way.
What the board says
M5 ▲ from 04:25 · target 1st bullish exhaustion @ 158.201 · 11 of 21 ▲ · M20, H1 Res.
08:305 NovemberThe first target
An hour later the price touches the teal line. The first bullish exhaustion of M5, now at 158.226, is reached, and the M5 row reads 1st exh. The liquidity line has climbed to 158.026, because the balance of volume moved with the trend. Take profit here, or at least part of it, and move the stop behind the support line.
Something else appears on the board: M1 to M5 are all bullish and all exhausted. Five in a row is a swarm, this time a bullish one, with a SELL 38.2% at 158.222, a TARGET at the M5 equilibrium, 158.026, and a STOP at 158.343. It is a swarm of the smallest fish only, M1 to M5, while M12 to H1 are still bearish. Watch what the price does with it.
What the board says
M5 1st exh · swarm M1–M5 ▲ · SELL 38.2% @ 158.222 · STOP M5 E1 @ 158.343.
11:005 NovemberM10 follows, the bigger fish do not
The price went straight through the small swarm's stop at 158.343 and on to 158.375. The swarm said where a turn was likely, not that it must come, and this one did not hold: a close beyond the stop means the frames are still in trend. M10 has turned ▲, so twelve timeframes are bullish. M12, M15, M20, M30 and H1 are still ▼, with their lines under the price now.
Above the price sits the bearish H4 liquidity line at 158.479, and below it the bullish M6 line at 158.278. Between them MERAVITH shades a grey zone, a liquidity pool, where the buyers of one timeframe and the sellers of the other both do business. The price is inside it. The new swarm, M1 to M6, puts its SELL 38.2% at 158.474, right under the H4 line, and its TARGET at the M6 equilibrium, 158.278.
What the board says
12 of 21 ▲ · pool M6–H4 158.278–158.479, price inside · swarm M1–M6 ▲ · SELL 38.2% @ 158.474.
13:005 NovemberThe trend grows old
At 12:40 the price reached 158.52, the top of the day, inside the grey pool and at the swarm's entry as it stood then. By 13:00 the levels have moved with the equilibriums: TARGET M6 at 158.311, the amber 50% at 158.496, SELL 38.2% at 158.539 and the STOP at 158.680, one deviation above the third exhaustion of M2. M1 has reached its third target, M2 its second. Blue volume dots sit on M1, M2 and M3.
The trend you watched being born is now the old trend. Twelve neighbouring frames point one way and the six smallest are exhausted, under a bearish H4 line that never turned. The same reading that found its first candle is pointing at the next one.
What the board says
Swarm M1–M6 ▲, all exhausted · SELL 38.2% @ 158.539 · TARGET M6 @ 158.311 · STOP M2 E3 @ 158.680.
15:005 NovemberThe next trend is born
Between 13:20 and 15:00 the price falls from 158.45 to 158.096, through the swarm's TARGET at 158.311. The M5 trend is bearish again, anchored on the 13:20 candle, with a new liquidity line at 158.259 and a first bearish exhaustion at 157.927. M1 to M6 are ▼ and M1 has already reached its first target. Six timeframes are bullish, and one of them, M10, carries a blue dot of high volume against the new fall.
The chart has come full circle. A trend was born at 04:25 on the smallest timeframes, grew to M10, and ended inside the pool under the H4 line, exactly where its own swarm said it would. The bigger fish, M12 to H1, never joined; they were bearish the whole day, and the day ended their way. When a trend gets old, look at the swarm. Then you already know where the next one begins.
What the board says
M5 ▼ from 13:20 · swarm target reached · 6 of 21 ▲ · M10 high vol against the fall.
Where these numbers come from
The candles are Ava Trade's USDJPY M5 bars. At each of the eight moments MERAVITH's algorithm was run on the bars that existed up to then, on all 21 timeframes, with the same code that serves Enigmera Terminal. Nothing is drawn by hand and nothing is redrawn afterwards: every line and every row is what the indicator read at that moment. The swarm follows the current rule, five or more neighbouring timeframes in one trend, all exhausted.
See it on your own charts
Everything on the board is drawn bar by bar and never repainted, so the history of any chart is the record of how MERAVITH read every trend.